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Global Banks, Financial Shocks And International Business Cycles: Evidence From An Estimated Model

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  • Robert Kollmann

Abstract

This paper estimates a two-country model with a global bank, using US and Euro Area (EA) data, and Bayesian methods. The estimated model matches key US and EA business cycle statistics. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for US real activity. Banking shocks account for about 3%-5% of the unconditional variance of US GDP and for 4%-14% of the variance of EA GDP. During the Great Recession (2007-09), banking shocks accounted for about 12%-20% of the fall in US and EA GDP, and for more than a third of the fall in EA investment and employment.

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File URL: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2013/302013.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2013-30.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-30

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Keywords: financial crisis; global banking; real activity; investment; Bayesian econometrics.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. In 'T Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International Capital Flows and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 9957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2013. "Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-Driven Business Cycles," Carleton Economic Papers 13-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  3. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2014. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?," European Economy - Economic Papers 516, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  4. Robert Kollmann & Werner Roeger & Jan in'tVeld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy vs. Bank Rescue Measure," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-008, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal policy, banks and the financial crisis," Working Paper Research 234, National Bank of Belgium.
  6. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 249-261, June.
  7. Naohisa Hirakata & Takushi Kurozumi, 2013. "The International Finance Multiplier in Business Cycle Fluctuations," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  8. Yue ZHAO, 2013. "Role of Financial and Productivity Shocks in the US and Japan: A Two-Country Economy," KIER Working Papers 881, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  9. Matthieu Bussière & Jean Imbs & Robert Kollmann & Romain Rancière, 2013. "The Financial Crisis: Lessons for International Macroeconomics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 75-84, July.

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