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The recent boom-bust cycle: The relative contribution of capital flows, credit supply and asset bubbles

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  • In't Veld, Jan
  • Raciborski, Rafal
  • Ratto, Marco
  • Roeger, Werner

Abstract

We use an estimated open economy DSGE model with financial frictions for the US and the rest of the world to evaluate various competing explanations about the recent boom-bust cycle. We find that the savings glut hypothesis is insufficient for explaining all aspects of the boom in the US. Relatively strong TFP growth and expansionary monetary policy are also not able to explain fully the volatility of corporate and in particular residential investment. We identify bubbles in the stock and housing market as crucial. Concerning the downturn in 2008/2009, the fall in house prices and residential investment only plays a minor role. Mortgage defaults have more explanatory power, especially in a specification of the model with a segregated equity market. Finally, the bursting of the stock market bubble was at least as important in this recession as in 2001. Because of various negative shocks hitting the economy at the same time in 2008/2009 and continued positive technology growth, not only the real interest rate declined but inflation fell rapidly and left insufficient room for monetary policy to play a similar stabilising role as in previous recessions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 55 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 386-406

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:55:y:2011:i:3:p:386-406

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer

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Keywords: DSGE model Housing Savings glut Bubbles Shocks;

References

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  1. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 145, National Bank of Belgium.
  5. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2007. "Shocks, structures or monetary policies? The euro area and US after 2001," Working Paper Series 0774, European Central Bank.
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  10. David Laibson & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2010. "Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 354-374, 05.
  11. Skander Van den Heuvel, 2005. "The Welfare Cost of Bank Capital Requirements," 2005 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, 09.
  13. Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153, October.
  14. Jan Hatzius, 2008. "Beyond Leveraged Losses: The Balance Sheet Effects of the Home Price Downturn," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 195-227.
  15. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Facts and myths about the financial crisis of 2008," Working Papers 666, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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