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Global Banks, Financial Shocks and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model

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  • Kollmann, Robert

Abstract

This paper estimates a two-country model with a global bank, using US and Euro Area (EA) data, and Bayesian methods. The estimated model matches key US and EA business cycle statistics. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for US real activity. During the Great Recession (2007-09), banking shocks accounted for about 20% of the fall in US and EA GDP, and for more than half of the fall in EA investment and employment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8985.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8985

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Keywords: Bayesian econometrics; financial crisis; global banking; investment; real activity;

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References

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  1. Robert Kollmann & Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Mueller, 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 72, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Vicente Tuesta & Pau Rabanal, 2006. "Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model," IMF Working Papers 06/177, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2008. "Investment Shocks and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 566-584, May.
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  8. Luc Laeven & Harry Huizinga, 2009. "Accounting Discretion of Banks During a Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/207, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Boivin, J. & Giannoni, M., 2007. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Working papers 162, Banque de France.
  11. Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
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  13. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2011. "Stabilization Policy and Boom-Bust Cycles - Monetary and Macro-Prudential Rules," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  15. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in'tVeld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Banks and the Financial Crisis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-034, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  16. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
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  18. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2013. "Financial exposure and the international transmission of financial shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2013-39, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  19. Robert Kollmann & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 77-81, May.
  20. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
  21. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Robert Kollmann & Philippe Martin, 2009. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 27, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  22. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
  23. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2008. "The welfare cost of bank capital requirements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-320, March.
  24. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta Reátegui, Vicente, 2006. "Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model: What is Important and What is Not," CEPR Discussion Papers 5957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November.
  26. Gregory deWalque & Olivier Pierrard & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2010. "Financial (In)Stability, Supervision and Liquidity Injections: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1234-1261, December.
  27. David Aikman & Matthias Paustian, 2006. "Bank capital, asset prices and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 305, Bank of England.
  28. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2011. "Evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 427-442, April.
  29. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  31. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2011. "The great escape? A quantitative evaluation of the Fed’s liquidity facilities," Staff Reports 520, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  32. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2010. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and the EU Using Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 23-44, February.
  33. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, December.
  34. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  35. Robert Kollmann, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7640, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  36. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kollmann, Robert & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in't, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy vs. Bank Rescue Measures," CEPR Discussion Papers 8829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in'tVeld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Banks and the Financial Crisis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-034, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. In 'T Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2014. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Beatrice Pataracchia & Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld, 2014. "International Capital Flows and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Spain," European Economy - Economic Papers 519, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Matthieu Bussière & Jean Imbs & Robert Kollmann & Romain Rancière, 2013. "The Financial Crisis: Lessons for International Macroeconomics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 75-84, July.
  6. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2013. "Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-driven Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-08, McMaster University.
  7. Yue ZHAO, 2013. "Role of Financial and Productivity Shocks in the US and Japan: A Two-Country Economy," KIER Working Papers 881, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Naohisa Hirakata & Takushi Kurozumi, 2013. "The International Finance Multiplier in Business Cycle Fluctuations," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  9. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 249-261, June.

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