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Mankiw vs. DeLong and Krugman on the CEA's Real GDP Forecasts in Early 2009: What Might a Time Series Econometrician Have Said?

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Author Info

  • David O. Cushman

Abstract

In early 2009, the incoming Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisers predicted real GDP would rebound strongly from recession levels. In a blog post, Greg Mankiw expressed skepticism. In their blogs, Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman sighed. Of course there would be strong growth, they maintained, because the recovery of employment would mandate it via Okun’s Law. Mankiw challenged Krugman to a bet on the issue, but there was no response. Of course we now have a good idea of the likely outcome, but I posit a hypothetical time series econometrician who, at the time of the blog entries, applies some standard forecasting methods to see whether DeLong and Krugman’s confidence was justified. The econometrician’s conclusion is that Mankiw would likely win the bet and furthermore that a rebound of any significance is unlikely. The econometrician has no idea how DeLong and Krugman could have been so confident in the CEA’s rebound forecast.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econ Journal Watch in its journal Econ Journal Watch.

Volume (Year): 9 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 309-349

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Handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:9:y:2012:i:3:p:309-349

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Keywords: Greg Mankiw; Brad DeLong; Paul Krugman; Council of Economic Advisers; real GDP; forecasts; ARIMA; VAR;

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References

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  1. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Campbell, John, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Scholarly Articles 3207697, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. William L. Davis & Bob G. Figgins & David Hedengren & Daniel B. Klein, 2011. "Economics Professors' Favorite Economic Thinkers, Journals, and Blogs (along with Party and Policy Views)," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 8(2), pages 126-146, May.
  3. Nelson, C-R & Murray, C-J, 1997. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 97-05, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1988. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," NBER Working Papers 1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
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  7. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  8. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
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  11. Shelley, Gary L. & Wallace, Frederick H., 2011. "Further evidence regarding nonlinear trend reversion of real GDP and the CPI," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 56-59, July.
  12. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  15. Cushman, David O. & Michael, Nils, 2011. "Nonlinear trends in real exchange rates: A panel unit root test approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1619-1637.
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Cited by:
  1. Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Maik Wolters, 2012. "Do large recessions reduce output permanently?," Kiel Working Papers 1815, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Athanassios Petralias & Sotirios Petros & Pródromos Prodromídis, 2013. "Greece in Recession: Economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 75, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.

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