Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jorge Canales-Kriljenko
  • Turgut Kisinbay
  • Rodolfo Maino
  • Eric Parrado

Abstract

How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses elements for building a comprehensive platform for an inflation forecasting framework. It describes the exercise of forecasting inflation as a production process, which induces a strict discipline concerning data management and collection, the use of a suitable statistical apparatus, and the exercise of sound communication strategies to reinforce reputation and credibility. The efficient organization of the central bank becomes critical in producing relevant macroeconomic forecasts, with special consideration to product design, the essential requirements needed in the forecasting process, and key related organizational issues. In addition, the paper proposes to factor the authorities’ policy responses into inflation forecasts to ensure consistency with the spirit of the inflation targeting framework.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc362.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 362.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:362

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
  4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
  5. Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0163, European Central Bank.
  6. Prakash Loungani, 2000. "How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts--Cross-Country Evidence from Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/77, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," NBER Working Papers 10829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lyziak, Tomasz, 2003. "Consumer inflation expectations in Poland," Working Paper Series 0287, European Central Bank.
  9. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S20-S36.
  10. Oller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-315.
  11. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April.
  12. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  13. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September.
  14. Tiff Macklem, 2001. "A New Measure of Core Inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2001(Autumn), pages 3-12.
  15. Douglas Laxton & Alasdair Scott & David Rose, 2009. "Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)," IMF Working Papers 09/65, International Monetary Fund.
  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Marc Zelmer & Andrea Schaechter & Mark R. Stone & Alina Carare, 2002. "Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 02/102, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Gilda Fernandez & Cem Karacadag & Rupa Duttagupta, 2004. "From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Towards Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Working Papers 04/126, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2001. "Monetary transmission lags and the formulation of the policy decision on interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 165-186.
  20. Scott Roger & Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? The International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/163, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Héctor Cuasquer & René Maldonado, 2011. "Microfinanzas y microcrédito en Latinoamérica," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 179-193, Octubre-d.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Weathering the Global Storm: The Benefits of Monetary Policy Reform in the LA5 Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/292, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Marcel Peter & Scott Roger & Geoffrey Heenan, 2006. "Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design, and Communications," IMF Working Papers 06/278, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis--Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Jorge Iván Canales-Kriljenko & Luis I. Jácome H. & Ali Alichi & Ivan Luis de Oliveira Lima, 2011. "Sorteando la tormenta mundial: beneficios de la reforma de política monetaria en cinco países latinoamericanos," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 194-226, Octubre-d.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:362. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.