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The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers

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  • Magdalena Szyszko

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    (Poznan School of Banking)

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    Abstract

    This paper focuses on the relationship between inflation forecast and inflation expectations of households measured on the basis of conducted surveys. Two hypotheses are presented. The first one assumes that there are interdependences between the inflation forecast results and consumers inflation expectations. The second hypothesis implies that the existence of the interdependences between the inflation forecasts and inflation expectations depends neither on detailed solutions in the field of forecasting inflation applied by central banks nor on their attitude towards inflation forecast targeting implementation. The research covers 4 central banks: of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its journal Bank i Kredyt.

    Volume (Year): 44 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 33-66

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    Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:44:y:2013:i:1:p:33-66

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    Keywords: inflation forecasts; inflation forecast targeting; inflation expectations;

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    References

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    1. Frederic S Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
    3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Michal Skorepa & Viktor Kottlan, 2003. "Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: forecasts or simulations?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 147-157 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 13259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0163, European Central Bank.
    8. Tarkka, Juha & Mayes, David, 1999. "The Value of Publishing Official Central Bank Forecasts," Research Discussion Papers 22/1999, Bank of Finland.
    9. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    10. Lyziak, Tomasz, 2003. "Consumer inflation expectations in Poland," Working Paper Series 0287, European Central Bank.
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    12. Kai Leitemo, 2006. "Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 35-64, 02.
    13. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "The Role of Inflation Expectations in the New EU Member States: Consumer Survey Based Results," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 298-317, Oktober.
    14. Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 52, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
    15. Remsperger, Hermann & Worms, Andreas, 1999. "Transparency in monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2004(1), pages 13-41.
    17. Hans Gersbach, 2003. "On the negative social value of central banks' knowledge transparency," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 91-102, 08.
    18. Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2009. "The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 720, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Stefan Krause, 2002. "Central bank structure, policy efficiency, and macroeconomic performance: exploring empirical relationships," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-60.
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