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An introduction to the ECB's survey of professional forecasters

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  • Garcí­a, Juan Angel

Abstract

This paper provides a detailed overview of the ECB JEL Classification: C8, E31

Suggested Citation

  • Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2003. "An introduction to the ECB's survey of professional forecasters," Occasional Paper Series 8, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20038
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp8.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Santillán & Marc Bayle & Christian Thygesen, 2000. "The impact of the euro on money and bond markets," Occasional Paper Series 1, European Central Bank.
    2. Santillán, Javier & Bayle, Marc & Thygesen, Christian, 2000. "The impact of the euro on money and bond markets," Occasional Paper Series 1, European Central Bank.
    3. Thimann, Christian & Mazzaferro, Francesco & Mehl, Arnaud & Sturm, Michael & Winkler, Adalbert, 2002. "Economic relations with regions neighbouring the euro area in the "euro time zone"," Occasional Paper Series 7, European Central Bank.
    4. Inês Cabral & Frank Dierick & Jukka Vesala, 2002. "Banking integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 06, European Central Bank.
    5. Genre, Véronique & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón, 2002. "Labour force developments in the euro area since the 1980s," Occasional Paper Series 4, European Central Bank.
    6. Veronique Genre & Ramon Gomez Salvador, 2002. "Labour force developments in the euro area since the 1980s," Occasional Paper Series 04, European Central Bank.
    7. Thimann, Christian & Buldorini, Luca & Makrydakis, Stelios, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    8. Francesco Mazzaferro & Arnaud Mehl & Michael Sturm & Christian Thimann & Adalbert Winkler, 2002. "Economic relations with regions neighbouring the euro area in the ‘euro time zone," Occasional Paper Series 07, European Central Bank.
    9. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank.
    10. Vesala, Jukka & Cabral, Inês & Dierick, Frank, 2002. "Banking integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 6, European Central Bank.
    11. Claus Brand & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 03, European Central Bank.
    12. Daniela Russo & Terry L. Hart & Andreas Schönenberger, 2002. "The evolution of clearing and central counterparty services for exchange-traded derivatives in the United States and Europe - a comparison," Occasional Paper Series 05, European Central Bank.
    13. Russo, Daniela & Hart, Terry L. & Schönenberger, Andreas, 2002. "The evolution of clearing and central counterparty services for exchange-traded derivatives in the United States and Europe: a comparison," Occasional Paper Series 5, European Central Bank.
    14. Brand, Claus & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 3, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joana Garcia & Nikolay Iskrev, 2019. "Inflation expectations in the Survey of Professional Forecasters: An exploratory analysis," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2020. "Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed‐smoothing asymptotics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 391-409, June.
    4. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 233-253, February.
    5. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation," IMF Working Papers 2018/154, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    7. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    8. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Broer, Tobias & Kohlhas, Alexandre, 2018. "Forecaster (Mis-)Behavior," CEPR Discussion Papers 12898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    11. Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    12. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Jorge Canales-Kriljenko & Turgut Kisinbay & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 362, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    15. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España.
    16. Meyler, Aidan, 2020. "Forecast performance in the ECB SPF: ability or chance?," Working Paper Series 2371, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; macroeconomic forecasts; surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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