IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/20023.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth

Author

Listed:
  • Brand, Claus
  • Gerdesmeier, Dieter
  • Roffia, Barbara

Abstract

This paper documents the analytical work that was carried out for the 2001 review of the assumption for the trend in M3 income velocity used to calculate the reference value for M3 growth. We analyse the medium-term trend in velocity using univariate time series tools and different money demand models. In addition, some cross-checking is carried out to address data compilation issues related to the accession of Greece in 2001 and to different weighting schemes used to aggregate historical euro area data. It is found that the trend decline in M3 income velocity over the medium term is within a range of 1/2% to 1% per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Brand, Claus & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 3, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20023
    Note: 92649
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Nicoletti Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 63, European Central Bank.
    3. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    4. Hall, Stephen G, 1993. "Modelling Structural Change Using the Kalman Filter," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-13.
    5. Carlo C. A. Winder & Martin M. G. Fase, 1998. "Wealth and the demand for money in the European union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 507-524.
    6. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737.
    7. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
    8. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    11. Beyer, Andreas & Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F, 2001. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages 102-121, February.
    12. Luca Dedola & Eugenio Gaiotti & Luca Silipo, 2001. "Money demand in the euro area: do national differences matter?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 405, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    15. Eduard J. Bomhoff, 1991. "Stability of Velocity in the Major Industrial Countries: A Kalman Filter Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 626-642, September.
    16. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    17. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    18. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    20. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
    21. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    2. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    4. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gabe J. De Bondt, 2010. "New Evidence On The Motives For Holding Euro Area Money," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(3), pages 259-278, June.
    6. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    7. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    8. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2007. "Instabile Geldnachfrage im Euroraum?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 85-95.
    11. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2009. "Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 51-63.
    12. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The ECB's Two Pillars," CEPR Discussion Papers 3689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Christian Dreger & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2019. "Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 599-615, October.
    14. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2006. "Currency Substitution and Money Demand in Euroland," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(3), pages 275-287, September.
    15. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Stock Market Downswing and the Stability of European Monetary Union Money Demand," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 395-402, October.
    16. Giacomo Sbrana, 2008. "On the use of area-wide models in the Euro-zone," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 17(4), pages 499-518, October.
    17. Oliver Holtemöller, 2004. "A monetary vector error correction model of the Euro area and implications for monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 553-574, September.
    18. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Françoise Drumetz & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2012. "The Money Demand Function For The Euro Area: Some Empirical Evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 377-392, July.
    19. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Roelands, Sebastian, 2010. "The demand for euros," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 674-684, June.
    20. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2010. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, money demand and policy rule: Evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 88-105, March.
    21. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Diop, A. & Fonteny, E-C. & Gervais, E. & Jacquinot, P. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Sahuc, J-G., 2003. "Estimation d’une fonction de demande de monnaie pour la zone euro : une synthèse des résultats," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 111, pages 47-72.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    income; M3; M3 income velocity; monetary growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M3 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising
    • M3 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.