Stability of Velocity in the Major Industrial Countries: A Kalman Filter Approach
AbstractForecasting models are estimated using annual data for the income velocity of money in seven major industrial countries. The predictions are conditional on the realized value of the long-term domestic government bond rate. These forecasts did not deteriorate over the period 1980-88, compared with the earlier postwar period. Velocity of M1 is found to be very interest elastic in almost all countries; velocity of M2, less so. The specifications (based on Kalman filters) point to a nonconstant trend in velocity, raising questions about the assumptions required for the cointegration techniques used in other research on money demand.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.
Volume (Year): 38 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
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- Elyasiani, Elyas & Zadeh, Ali H. M., 1999. "Econometric tests of alternative scale variables in money demand in open economies: International evidence from selected OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 193-211.
- Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997.
"Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey,"
7, European Monetary Institute.
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