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Monetary Policy Lessons of recent Inflation and Disinflation

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Author Info
William Poole

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Abstract

The decline of velocity in the 1980s is a surprise that should not have been. Economists unwisely relied on a velocity trend of 3 percent per year when they should have insisted on an economic explanation for rising velocity. An analysis of velocity and interest rates from 1915 to 1986 suggests that the interest elasticity of money demand is substantially higher than previously thought. The postwar increase of rates followed by a major decline of rates in the 1980s explains velocity behavior. The large decline in velocity almost certainly would have caused severe economic problems had the Federal Reserve not accommodated the decline through more rapid money growth. Federal Reserve policy between October 1979 and October 1982 emphasized control of money growth. Money market behavior during this period, compared to periods before and after, provides strong evidence that the market sets interest rates on the basis of a sophisticated understanding of monetary policy. The evidence makes clear that the monetary authorities cannot use interest rates to provide information on the state of the economy unless they know the extent to which interest rates reflect expectations of future monetary policy.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2300.

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Date of creation: Jul 1987
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2300

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Martin Feldstein, 1987. "How Far Has the Dollar Fallen?," NBER Working Papers 2122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Laidler, David, 1980. "The demand for money in the United States-- Yet again," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 219-271, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1985. "Understanding monetary regimes," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-8, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Weekly money supply announcements and the volatility of short-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Apr, pages 3-15. [Downloadable!]
  13. John Y. Campbell & Richard H. Clarida, 1988. "The Dollar and Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. William Poole, 1970. "Whither Money Demand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(1970-3), pages 485-501. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yu HSING, 1989. "On The Variable Money Demand Elasticity: The Case Of Taiwan," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 43-52, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Marvin Goodfriend, 1993. "Interest rate policy and the inflation scare problem: 1979-1992," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2009. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860–1988," Working Papers hal-00422502_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Is the US Demand for Money Unstable?," MPRA Paper 15715, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim & Min Wei, 2008. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "The Demand For Money In Austria," Macroeconomics 9902012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. William T. Gavin & William G. Dewald, 1989. "The effects of disinflationary policies on monetary velocity," Working Paper 8901, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael J. Dueker, 1993. "Can nominal GDP targeting rules stabilize the economy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 15-29. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael F. Bryan & William T. Gavin, 1991. "A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags," Working Paper 9122, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung & Pierre Siklos, 1993. "The Common Development of Institutional Change as Measured by Income Velocity: A Century of Evidence from Industrialized Countries," NBER Working Papers 4379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Renato Filosa, 1995. "Money demand stability and currency substitution in six European countries (1980-1992)," BIS Working Papers 30, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  12. Stanley C. W. Salvary, 2005. "Informedness Of Economic Agents And The Quantity Theory Of Money," Macroeconomics 0512005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Taufiq Choudhry, 2002. "Financial Innovations And Demand For United States M1 And M2 Components," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 73-93, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. John B. Carlson & Sharon E. Parrott, 1991. "The demand for M2, opportunity cost, and financial change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  15. John B. Carlson & Susan M. Byrne, 1992. "Recent behavior of velocity: alternative measures of money," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 2-10. [Downloadable!]
  16. Laurence Ball, 2002. "Short-run Money Demand," Economics Working Paper Archive 481, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Stefania D'Amico & Don H Kim & Min Wei, 2008. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," BIS Working Papers 248, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  18. Bruno Chiarini, 1996. "Disinflation in the Italian economy in an optimal control setting," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 391-422, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Martin Feldstein & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 1989. "Budget Deficits, Tax Incentives and Inflation: A Surprising Lesson From The 1983-84 Recovery," NBER Working Papers 2819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Bernd Hayo, 1998. "Estimating a European Demand for Money," Macroeconomics 9811008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Francisco Rosende & Luis Oscar Herrera, 1991. "Teoría y Política Monetaria: Elementos para el Análisis," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 28(83), pages 55-94. [Downloadable!]
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