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Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco

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  • Bentour, El Mostafa

Abstract

The Moroccan economy suffers deeply from two exogenous shocks: high oil prices and drought periods. The irregular rainfall and instability of oil prices increase the volatility of economic growth and the uncertainty around growth forecasts. We exploit the vulnerability to these shocks in order to forecast the economic growth in Morocco. We use for this an Error Correction model linking output and trade balance in a vector augmented by oil prices and cereal production as exogenous variables over the period 1962-2012. The results are in the range and comparable to those of other national institutions and IMF. For example, based on the hypotheses of 97.7 $ per barrel and a moderate cereal production of 70 million quintals, growth is forecasted to be around 3%, in 2014, with a lower and upper bound of 2.5% and 3.4% respectively. The IMF and the High Commission for Planning forecast respectively 3.8% and 2.5%.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 52892.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52892

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Keywords: Trade Balance; GDP Volatility; Cereal Production; VECM-X model;

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  1. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  3. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
  4. Sargent, Thomas J, 1984. "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 408-15, May.
  5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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