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Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters

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  • Gary Koop

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Luca Onorante

    ()
    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables,we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric specification. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1109.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1109

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Keywords: inflation expectations; survey of professional forecasters; Phillips curve; Bayesian;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2013. "Autoregression-based estimation of the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 561-570.
  2. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note," Discussion Papers 329, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  3. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, . "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 84656, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  4. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Vilmi , Lauri, 2013. "How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA," Research Discussion Papers 6/2013, Bank of Finland.

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