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Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

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  • Koop, Gary
  • Onorante, Luca

Abstract

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2011-19.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:260

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Keywords: inflation expectations; survey of professional forecasters; Phillips curve; Bayesian;

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Cited by:
  1. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Vilmi , Lauri, 2013. "How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA," Research Discussion Papers 6/2013, Bank of Finland.
  2. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-88, March.
  3. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2011. "Autoregression-Based Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 29801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note," Discussion Papers 329, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  5. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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