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Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Turgut Kisinbay
  • Mr. Eric Parrado
  • Mr. Rodolfo Maino
  • Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko

Abstract

How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses elements for building a comprehensive platform for an inflation forecasting framework. It describes the exercise of forecasting inflation as a production process, which induces a strict discipline concerning data management, information gathering, the use of a suitable statistical apparatus, and the exercise of sound communication strategies to reinforce reputation and credibility. It becomes critical how a central bank organizes itself to produce relevant macroeconomic forecasts, with special consideration to product design, the essential requirements needed in the forecasting process, and key related organizational issues. In addition, the paper proposes to factor into the process the authorities' policy responses to previous inflation forecasts in order to be consistent with the spirit of the inflation targeting framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Turgut Kisinbay & Mr. Eric Parrado & Mr. Rodolfo Maino & Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2006/122, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian P Pinshi, 2022. "Ciblage des prévisions d'inflation : Un nouveau cadre pour la politique monétaire ?," Working Papers hal-03548273, HAL.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Weathering the Global Storm: The Benefits of Monetary Policy Reform in the LA5 Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/292, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Héctor Cuasquer & René Maldonado, 2011. "Microfinanzas y microcrédito en Latinoamérica," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 179-193, Octubre-d.
    4. Jorge Iván Canales-Kriljenko & Luis I. Jácome H. & Ali Alichi & Ivan Luis de Oliveira Lima, 2011. "Sorteando la tormenta mundial: beneficios de la reforma de política monetaria en cinco países latinoamericanos," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 194-226, Octubre-d.
    5. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    6. PINSHI, Christian P., 2022. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," MPRA Paper 111709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mr. Marcel Peter & Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan, 2006. "Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design, and Communications," IMF Working Papers 2006/278, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Damdinsuren, Batnyam & Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2008. "Small Inflation Model of Mongolia (SIMOM)," MPRA Paper 72139, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2008.

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