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The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment

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Author Info
Monica Martin
Cristiano Papile
Abstract

Since the autumn of 1997, the Bank of Canada's regional offices (located in Halifax, Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver) have conducted consultations with businesses across Canada on a quarterly basis. These consultations are now referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The BOS provides a timely source of information on what businesses are experiencing and planning. Business consultations are timed to feed into the decision-making process that precedes the Bank's fixed dates for announcing monetary policy decisions. The consultations are structured around a questionnaire. Every quarter, 100 firms that reflect the diverse composition of the Canadian economy in terms of region, type of business activity, and firm size are interviewed. Because the BOS is a relatively new tool, the survey time series is short. The assessment presented in this paper, which is based on charts and correlations, is intended as an initial guide. The findings suggest that the survey serves as a barometer of the Canadian economy and provides leading signals of future activity. The interview responses also inform the Bank about production-capacity constraints, labour shortages, and inflation expectations.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-15.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-15

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Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8899
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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Postal: Publications Distribution, Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
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Related research
Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles; Domestic demand and components;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brigid Brady & Farid Novin, 2001. "Factors Affecting Regional Economic Performance in Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2001(Autumn), pages 21-29. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tiff Macklem, 2002. "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 11-18. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nathan S. Balke & D'Ann Petersen, 1998. "How well does the Beige Book reflect economic activity? Evaluating qualitative information quantitatively," Working Papers 98-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. David Amirault & Louis-Robert Lafleur, 2000. "Recent Performance of the Canadian Economy: A Regional View," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2000(Autumn), pages 13-23. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chris Aylmer & Troy Gill, 2003. "Business Surveys and Economic Activity," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Monica Martin, 2004. "The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Spring), pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paul Jenkins & David Longworth, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 3-10. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Daniel de Munnik & Kuan Xu, 2007. "Micro Foundations of Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Canadian Firms," Working Papers 07-31, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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