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Does the Beige Book move financial markets?

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Author Info
Madeline Zavodny
Donna K. Ginther

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Abstract

About two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic activity in a document called the Beige Book. The authors examine whether the descriptive content of the Beige Book affects asset prices. The results indicate that more positive Beige Book reports on economic growth are associated with increases in interest rates, particularly long-term rates, even after controlling for other macroeconomic data releases. Stronger Beige Book reports are positively associated with changes in equity prices during expansions but negatively during recessions.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2003-3.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2003-3

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Related research
Keywords: Business forecasting Economic conditions - United States Federal Reserve System Economic indicators Financial markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mitchell, Mark L & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. " The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 923-50, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Campbell, John Y, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-52, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1987. "Macroeconomic information and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 131-140, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Berry, Thomas D & Howe, Keith M, 1994. " Public Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1331-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nathan S. Balke & Mine K. Yücel, 2000. "Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 2-10. [Downloadable!]
  6. Balke, Nathan S & Petersen, D'Ann, 2002. "How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 114-36, February.
    Other versions:
  7. David Fettig & Arthur J. Rolnick & David E. Runkle, 1999. "The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: A better mirror than crystal ball," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Mar, pages 10-13,28-. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-96, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
  10. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," NBER Working Papers 1296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1989. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sharon Kozicki & P.A.Tinsley, 2001. "What do you expect? : imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis?," Research Working Paper RWP 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Zuliu Hu & Li Li, 1998. "Responses of the Stock Market to Macroeconomic Announcements Across Economic States," IMF Working Papers 98/79, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michelle T. Armesto & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-9-26.

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