Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Measuring causality between volatility and returns with high-frequency data

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jean-Marie Dufour

    ()

  • René García

    ()

  • Abderrahim Taamouti

    ()

Abstract

We use high-frequency data to study the dynamic relationship between volatility and equity returns. We provide evidence on two alternative mechanisms of interaction between returns and volatilities: the leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. The leverage hypothesis asserts that return shocks lead to changes in conditional volatility, while the volatility feedback effect theory assumes that return shocks can be caused by changes in conditional volatility through a time-varying risk premium. On observing that a central difference between these alternative explanations lies in the direction of causality, we consider vector autoregressive models of returns and realized volatility and we measure these effects along with the time lags involved through short-run and long-run causality measures proposed in Dufour and Taamouti (2008), as opposed to simple correlations. We analyze 5-minute observations on S&P 500 Index futures contracts, the associated realized volatilities (before and after filtering jumps through the bispectrum) and implied volatilities. Using only returns and realized volatility, we find a weak dynamic leverage effect for the first four hours at the hourly frequency and a strong dynamic leverage effect for the first three days at the daily frequency. The volatility feedback effect appears to be negligible at all horizons. By contrast, when implied volatility is considered, a volatility feedback becomes apparent, whereas the leverage effect is almost the same. We interpret these results as evidence that implied volatility contains important information on future volatility, through its nonlinear relation with option prices which are themselves forwardlooking. In addition, we study the dynamic impact of news on returns and volatility, again through causality measures. First, to detect possible dynamic asymmetry, we separate good from bad return news and find a much stronger impact of bad return news (as opposed to good return news) on volatility. Second, we introduce a concept of news based on the difference between implied and realized volatilities (the variance risk premium) and we find that a positive variance risk premium (an anticipated increase in variance) has more impact on returns than a negative variance risk premium.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/10016/2991/1/we084422.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía in its series Economics Working Papers with number we084422.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we084422

Contact details of provider:
Postal: C./ Madrid, 126, 28903 Getafe (Madrid)
Phone: +34-91 6249594
Fax: +34-91 6249329
Email:
Web page: http://www.eco.uc3m.es
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Volatility asymmetry; Leverage effect; Volatility feedback effect; Return risk premium; Variance risk premium; Multi-horizon causality; Causality measure; High-frequency data; Realized volatility; Bipower variation; Implied volatility;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  3. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2005. "The Empirical Risk-Return Relation: A Factor Analysis Approach," NBER Working Papers 11477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Oliver Linton & Enno Mammen, 2003. "Estimating Semiparametric ARCH (8) Models by Kernel Smoothing Methods," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE /2003/453, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  6. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Dave, Rakhal D. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & von Weizsacker, Jacob E., 1997. "Volatilities of different time resolutions -- Analyzing the dynamics of market components," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 213-239, June.
  7. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
  8. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "There is a risk-return trade-off after all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 509-548, June.
  10. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers, Rochester, Business - General 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
  11. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Francis X. Diebold,, 2003. "Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/35, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
  13. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, P.E.Peter E., 2004. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with fat-tails and correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 185-212, September.
  14. Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO 2004s-20, CIRANO.
  15. Neil Shephard, 2004. "A Central Limit Theorem for Realised Power and Bipower Variations of Continuous Semimartingales," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  16. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2006. "Idiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Market Volatility, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 43-56, January.
  17. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
  18. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler & Graversen, Svend Erik & Jacod, Jean & Podolskij, Mark, 2004. "A central limit theorem for realised power and bipower variations of continuous semimartingales," Technical Reports 2004,51, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  19. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," NBER Working Papers 1296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. " Time Variations and Covariations in the Expectation and Volatility of Stock Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 515-41, June.
  21. David H. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics 487, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  22. MEDDAHI, Nour, 2001. "A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated and Realized Volatilies," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 2001-26, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  23. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
  24. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
  25. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  26. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
  28. Wiggins, James B., 1987. "Option values under stochastic volatility: Theory and empirical estimates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 351-372, December.
  29. Thomas Busch & Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2008. "The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 1181, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  30. Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Working Papers, University of Washington, Department of Economics 89-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  31. Haugen, Robert A & Talmor, Eli & Torous, Walter N, 1991. " The Effect of Volatility Changes on the Level of Stock Prices and Subsequent Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 985-1007, July.
  32. Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March.
  33. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  34. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  35. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2002. "Estimating quadratic variation using realised variance," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W20, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  36. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  37. Geert Bekaert & Guojun Wu, 1997. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
  39. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1987. "Macroeconomic information and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 131-140, May.
  40. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
  41. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81.
  42. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  43. Hentschel, Ludger & Campbell, John, 1992. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3220232, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  44. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-51, June.
  45. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  46. Tim Bollerslev & Julia Litvinova & George Tauchen, 2006. "Leverage and Volatility Feedback Effects in High-Frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(3), pages 353-384.
  47. Jain, Prem C, 1988. "Response of Hourly Stock Prices and Trading Volume to Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 219-31, April.
  48. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2009. "A Nonparametric Copula Based Test for Conditional Independence with Applications to Granger Causality," Cahiers de recherche, CIRPEE 0927, CIRPEE.
  2. Amira, Khaled & Taamouti, Abderrahim & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "What drives international equity correlations? Volatility or market direction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1234-1263, October.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we084422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask to update the entry or send us the correct address.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.