Return and Volatility Reactions to Monthly Announcements of Business Cycle Forecasts: An Event Study Based on High-Frequency Data
AbstractThis article contributes to the literature on macroeconomic announcements and their impact on asset prices by investigating how the 15-second Xetra DAX returns reflect the monthly announcements of the two best known business cycle forecasts for Germany, i.e. the ifo Business Climate Index and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. From the methodological point of view, the main innovation lies in disentangling good' macroeconomics news from bad' news, and, simultaneously, considering time intervals with and without confounding announcements from other sources. Releases from both institutes lead to an immediate response of returns occurring 15 seconds after the announcements, i.e. within the first possible time interval. Announcements of both institutes are also clearly and immediately reflected in the volatility, which remains at a significantly higher level for approximately two minutes slightly elevated for approximately 15 minutes. Combining returns and volatility in a GARCH(1,1)-model, the paper reveals that significant increases in volatility only show up in the presence of simultaneous news released by other sources, whereas return reactions can be observed irrespective of whether confounding announcements are published or not. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 09-010.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
event study; announcement effect; high-frequency data; intraday data;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-06-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2009-06-10 (Business Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2009-06-10 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MST-2009-06-10 (Market Microstructure)
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