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Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX : eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose

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Entorf, Horst
Steiner, Christian

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Abstract

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die Reaktion des DAX auf makroökonomischen Konjunkturmeldungen in Form von Veröffentlichungen des ZEW-Finanzmarkttests untersucht. Zur Messung der Reaktion stehen die 15- Sekunden-Intraday-Realisationen des XDAX zur Verfügung. Die mittels Vergleich von Intraday-Verläufen, Regressionsanalyse und GARCH(1,1)-Modellierung erzeugten Ergebnisse zeigen sekundenschnelle und nur wenige Minuten anhaltende Reaktionen, wobei der größte Anteil der hochsignifikanten Reaktionen innerhalb von 30 Sekunden erfolgt. Bei Berücksichtigung der Ankündigungseffekte in der Varianzgleichung des GARCH(1,1)-Prozesse werden autoregressive Einflüsse des Renditeverhaltens insignifikant. --

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 06-08.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:4587

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