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Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey Using Statistical Approaches

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  • Lise Pichette

Abstract

Since the autumn of 1997, the regional offices of the Bank of Canada have conducted quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada. These consultations, summarized in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), are structured around a survey questionnaire that covers topics of importance to the Bank, notably business activity, pressures on production capacity, prices and inflation, and credit conditions. The author aims to enhance our understanding of the survey’s information content by extending the early work of Martin and Papile (2004) in two key ways. First, since all BOS questions are designed to capture some aspect of economic activity and are therefore interrelated, various approaches were considered to extract the common underlying variations among the indicators: a subjective approach (a simple average), principal-component analysis and factor analysis. Second, the information content of these common movements is assessed, using regression analysis and a forecasting assessment. The results suggest that all approaches to extract the information from the BOS provide very similar measures of underlying common variations. This underlying variable appears to be a useful indicator of economic activity, particularly for providing information on investment spending. However, the balance of opinion on future sales growth remains a better indicator than any measures of common movements for the growth of real GDP.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Discussion Papers with number 12-8.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:12-8

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Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles; Regional economic developments;

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  1. Giancarlo Bruno & Marco Malgarini, 2002. "An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy," ISAE Working Papers, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) 28, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  2. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Paper, National Institute of Economic Research 84, National Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
  4. Graeme Chamberlin, 2007. "Forcasting GDP using external data sources," Economic and Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(8), pages 18-23, August.
  5. Paul Jenkins & David Longworth, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 3-10.
  6. Lise Pichette & Lori Rennison, 2011. "Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey: A Principal-Component Approach," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Autumn), pages 21-28.
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