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Nowcasting of Economic Development Indicators Using the NBU’s Business Survey Results

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Lysenko

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

  • Nataliia Kolesnichenko

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

The article was devoted to the research of possibilities to use Business Outlook Survey results, which are carried out by National Bank of Ukraine, for the short-term forecasting of economic development, in particular, the Gross Domestic Product of Ukraine. The different methods of building of the leading index of economic development, their advantages, and their restrictions are examined. The choice of the best index, which provides for the higher accuracy of forecasting the GDP, is carried out with the use of econometric models.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Lysenko & Nataliia Kolesnichenko, 2016. "Nowcasting of Economic Development Indicators Using the NBU’s Business Survey Results," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 235, pages 43-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2016:i:235:p:43-56
    DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2016.235.043
    as

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    File URL: https://journal.bank.gov.ua/en/article/2016/235/03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lise Pichette, 2012. "Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey Using Statistical Approaches," Discussion Papers 12-8, Bank of Canada.
    2. Calista Cheung, 2009. "Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation?," Discussion Papers 09-5, Bank of Canada.
    3. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business expectations; business outlook survey; GDP; nowcasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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