The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and economic agents inflation expectations.Empirical study
AbstractThis paper focuses on the associations between the inflation forecasts of the central bank and inflation expectations of the households. The first part is of a descriptive nature. It gives the theoretical background of modern monetary policy focusing on the role of expectations. It also presents the idea of inflation forecast targeting. Then the framework of the inflation forecast targeting in four countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania is presented. The empirical part of the study is an attempt to find associations between the inflation forecasts results and inflation expectations of consumers derived on the basis of surveys. The theory gives sound background for the existence of such relationships.The interdependences are tested in several ways. The last part of the paper focuses on the results and conclusions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 105.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Note: This research project was conducted under the NBP Economic Research Committee’s open competition for research projects to be carried out by the NBP staff and economists from outside the NBP and was financed by the National Bank of Poland.
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More information through EDIRC
inflation forecasts; inflation forecasts targeting; inflation expectations;
Other versions of this item:
- Magdalena Szyszko, 2013. "The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 44(1), pages 33-66.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-02-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2012-02-20 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-02-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-02-20 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2012-02-20 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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