Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models

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Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models

Author Info

Gary Koop
Simon M. Potter

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Abstract

This article discusses Bayesian inference in change-point models. The main existing approaches treat all change-points equally, a priori, using either a Uniform prior or an informative hierarchical prior. Both approaches assume a known number of change-points. Some undesirable properties of these approaches are discussed. We develop a new Uniform prior that allows some of the change-points to occur out of sample. This prior has desirable properties, can be interpreted as "noninformative," and treats the number of change-points as unknown. Artificial and real data exercises show how these different priors can have a substantial impact on estimation and prediction. Copyright © (2009) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 50 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 751-772
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:50:y:2009:i:3:p:751-772

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Related research
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Paper
- Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior elicitation in multiple change-point models," Staff Reports 197, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Working Paper Series 17-07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007. [Downloadable!]
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/26, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
- Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Llubos Pástor, 2001. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2000. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," CRSP working papers 519, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2000. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," NBER Working Papers 7778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Lubos Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 21-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Are apparent findings of nonlinearity due to structural instability in economic time series?," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 38.
Other versions:
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Are apparent findings of nonlinearity due to structural instability in economic time series?," Staff Reports 59, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2004. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Cahiers de recherche 0422, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2008. "Learning, forecasting and structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 553-583. [Downloadable!]
Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
Graham Elliott & Ulrich Mueller, 2004. "Optimally Testing General Breaking Processes in Linear Time Series Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2003-07, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
Other versions:
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2007. "Are there Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Working Papers tecipa-304, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2008. "Are There Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 326-360, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0602, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
- Pesaran, Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
- Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," IEPR Working Papers 06.42, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
- Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "On the Evolution of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 24-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points," Staff Reports 196, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]

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