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Are There Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?

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Author Info
Chun Liu
John M. Maheu

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Abstract

Constructed from high-frequency data, realized volatility (RV) provides an accurate estimate of the unobserved volatility of financial markets. This paper uses a Bayesian approach to investigate the evidence for structural breaks in reduced form time-series models of RV. We focus on the popular heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models of the logarithm of realized volatility. Using Monte Carlo simulations we demonstrate that our estimation approach is effective in identifying and dating structural breaks. Applied to daily S, and P 500 data from 1993-2004, we find strong evidence of a structural break in early 1997. The main effect of the break is a reduction in the variance of log-volatility. The evidence of a break is robust to different models including a GARCH specification for the conditional variance of log(RV). Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbn006
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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (Summer)
Pages: 326-360
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Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:6:y:2008:i:3:p:326-360

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. repec:mop:credwp:09.05.84 is not listed on IDEAS
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  2. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2008. "Do high-frequency measures of volatility improve forecasts of return distributions?," Working Papers tecipa-324, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-33, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  4. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2009. "Forecasting realized volatility: a Bayesian model-averaging approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 709-733. [Downloadable!]
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  5. repec:mop:credwp:09.07.85 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  6. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options Introduction and Volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers halshs-00405709_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  7. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Working Papers halshs-00387286_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  8. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers hal-00419339_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  9. Zhongfang He & John M Maheu, 2008. "Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models," Working Papers tecipa-336, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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