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Structural Policies and Economic Resilience to Shocks

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  • Romain Duval
  • Jørgen Elmeskov
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

Cyclical fluctuations in economic activity have moderated over time but the extent and dynamics of volatility remain different across OECD countries. A reason behind this heterogeneity is that countries exhibit different degrees of resilience in the face of common shocks. This paper traces divergences in resilience back to different policy settings and institutions in labour, product and financial markets. Using pooled regression analysis across 20 OECD countries over the period 1982-2003, the paper identifies the impact of policy settings on two dimensions of resilience: the impact effect of a shock and its subsequent persistence. Policies and institutions associated with rigidities in labour and product markets are found to dampen the initial impact of shocks but to make their effects more persistent, while policies allowing for deep mortgage markets lower persistence and thereby improve resilience. Combining these two dimensions of resilience, the paper then uses the estimated equations to derive indicators of resilience for the OECD countries concerned, based on their current or recent policy settings. Three groups of countries emerge. In English-speaking countries, simulations suggest shocks have a significant initial effect on activity but this impact then dies out relatively quickly. By contrast, in many continental European countries the initial impact of shocks is cushioned but their effect linger for longer, with the cumulated output loss tending to be larger than in English-speaking countries. Finally a few, mostly small, European countries combine cushioning of the initial shock with a fairly quick return to baseline. Politiques structurelles et résilience économique aux chocs Bien que les fluctuations cycliques de l'activité se soient atténuées au cours des années récentes, leur ampleur et leur évolution continuent de différer sensiblement entre pays de l'OCDE. L'une des explications à cette hétérogénéité est que les pays affichent différents degrés de résilience à des chocs communs. Cet article explore la contribution des politiques et des institutions sur les marchés financiers, du travail et des biens et services à ces écarts de résilience. À partir de régressions sur un panel de 20 pays de l'OCDE portant sur la période 1982-2003, l'article identifie l' impact des politiques sur deux dimensions de la résilience : l'effet d'un choc à l'impact et sa persistance ultérieure. Il ressort que les politiques et les institutions entraînant des rigidités sur les marchés du travail et des biens et services atténuent l'impact initial d'un choc mais rendent cet effet plus persistant, tandis que des politiques favorisant le développement des marchés hypothécaires réduisent la persistance et ainsi améliorent la résilience. Combinant ces deux dimensions de la résilience, l'article utilise ensuite les équations estimées pour construire des indicateurs de résilience pour chacun des pays de l'OCDE concernés, sur la base de leurs politiques et de leurs institutions actuelles ou récentes. Cette analyse fait ressortir trois groupes de pays. Dans les pays anglophones, les simulations suggèrent que les chocs ont un impact initial significatif, mais que celui-ci se dissipe assez rapidement. A contrario, dans de nombreux pays d'Europe Continentale, l'impact initial des chocs est atténué, mais leurs effets se font ressentir plus longtemps et la perte de production cumulée tend à être plus élevée que dans les pays anglophones. Enfin, quelques petits pays Européens combinent à la fois un impact modéré des chocs et un retour relativement rapide à l'équilibre.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/140152385131
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 567.

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Date of creation: 16 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:567-en

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Keywords: resilience; cycles; output gap; institutions; institutions; écart d'activité; résilience; cycles;

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