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Regra de Taylor e Política Monetária em Condições de Endividamento Público no Brasil

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  • Cleomar Gomes

    (UFU)

  • Márcio Holland

    (UFU)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze, empirically, the relationship between the Central Bank’s reaction, also known as Taylor Rule, and the Brazilian public debt. The article is justified once the majority of the researches regarding the Brazilian reaction function doesn’t model the public debt. Our results show that when the Central Bank increases the interest rate, it manages to decrease inflation and the GDP growth. However, these impacts are smoothed by the increase of the debt/GDP and, as a result, by the probability of default. The latter, better than explaining higher interest rates, is explained by them .

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number b44.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2003:b44

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  1. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  4. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 106-133 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  7. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 19-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, October.
  11. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2000. "Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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