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Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Lessons and Challenges

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Author Info

  • André Minella
  • Paulo Springer de Freitas
  • Ilan Goldfajn
  • Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos

Abstract

This paper assesses the first three years of the inflation-targeting regime in Brazil adopted in July 1999. The inflation-targeting framework has shown to be highly important for the macroeconomic stabilization. We stress three important challenges: construction of credibility, change in relative prices, and exchange rate volatility. The estimations indicate the following results: i) the inflation targets have worked as an important coordinator of expectations; ii) the Central Bank has reacted strongly to inflation expectations; iii) there has been a reduction in the degree of persistence in inflation and in the volatility of inflation and output; iv) the exchange rate pass-through for "administered or monitored" prices is more than two times higher than for "market" prices. We also describe the methodology the Central Bank has developed to deal with inflationary shocks, which quantifies the sources of inflation, and examine some issues involved in the institutional design of inflation targeting.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps53.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 53.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:53

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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References

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, . "Why are Brazil´s Interest Rates so High?," Working Papers 224, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Claudio E. V. Borio & Wiliam English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 127, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Muhammad Naveed Tahir, 2011. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate and Financial Globalization," Working Papers halshs-00646601, HAL.
  3. Dubravko Mihaljek & Bruno Tissot, 2003. "Fiscal positions in emerging econimies: central banks' perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal issues and central banking in emerging economies, volume 20, pages 10-37 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Cleomar Gomes & Márcio Holland, 2003. "Regra de Taylor e Política Monetária em Condições de Endividamento Público no Brasil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b44, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  5. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nicolas E. Magud & Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 12/243, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Jeffery D. Amato & Andrew Filardo & Gabriele Galati & Goetz von Peter & Feng Zhu, 2005. "Research on exchange rates and monetary policy: an overview," BIS Working Papers 178, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Neri, Marcelo Cortes & Xerez, Marcelo Casal de, 2004. "Desenho de um sistema de metas sociais," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 565, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  9. Muhammad Naveed Tahir, 2011. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate and Financial Globalization," Working Papers 1130, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  10. Buchmann, Gabriel & Neri, Marcelo Cortes, 2008. "The Brazilian Education Quality Index (Ideb): Measurement and Incentives Upgrades," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 686, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  11. Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza & Cecília Rutkoski Hoff, 2003. "O Regime Cambial Brasileiro: Flutuação Genuína ou Medo de Flutuação?," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c60, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  12. Edilean Kleber da Silva & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2010. "Central Bank Preferences And Monetary Rules Under The Inflation Targeting Regime In Brazil," Working Papers 07-2010, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
  13. Amann, Edmund & Baer, Werner, 2003. "Anchors Away: The Cost and Benefits of Brazil's Devaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1033-1046, June.
  14. Rebeca de la Rocque Palis & Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos & Patrice Robitaille, 2004. "News or noise? an analysis of Brazilian GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 776, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Paulo Chananeco F. de Barcellos Neto & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2006. "The Natural Rate Of Interest In Brazil Between 1999 And 2005," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 84, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  16. Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "How to cure the trade balance? Reducing budget deficits versus devaluations in the presence of J- and W-curves for Brazil," Research Memorandum 018, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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