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Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis

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  • Camilo E Tovar

Abstract

This paper estimates a new open economy macroeconomic model for South Korea to determine the output effect of currency devaluations. Three transmission mechanisms are considered: the expenditure-switching, the balance sheet, and a monetary channel associated to a nominal exchange rate target. Devaluations are defined as an increase in this target. This allows to isolate the effects of an explicit exogenous devaluationary policy shock. Ceteris paribus, a devaluation is found to be expansionary. Output contractions in South Korea should then be associated with a different shock such as an adverse shock on the international interest rate or on export demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:215
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    2. Camilo E Tovar, 2005. "The mechanics of devaluations and the output response in a DSGE model: how relevant is the balance sheet effect?," BIS Working Papers 192, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Carlos García & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 533, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Mr. Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2009/234, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Purva Khera, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Gender Inequality and Informality in India," IMF Working Papers 2016/016, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Camilo E Tovar, 2010. "Currency collapses and output dynamics: a long-run perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    7. Fisera, Boris & Workie Tiruneh, Menbere & Hojdan, David, 2021. "Currency depreciations in emerging economies: A blessing or a curse for external debt management?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 132-165.
    8. Ali Dib & Ian Christensen, 2005. "Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model with a Financial Accelerator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 314, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Salome Tvalodze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Tamar Mdivnishvili & Davit Tutberidze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2016. "The National Bank of Georgia's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," NBG Working Papers 01/2016, National Bank of Georgia.
    10. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes1," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv226, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    11. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    12. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Roger, Scott, 2011. "How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1590-1617.
    13. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
    14. Javier García-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Santiago Justel, 2014. "Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 722, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Javier García-Cicco, 2010. "Estimating Models for Monetary Policy Analysis in Emerging Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 561, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Javier García-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Santiago Justel, 2015. "Domestic Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 6, pages 159-222, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Alberto Ortiz Bolaños, 2013. "Credit Market Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Economic Fluctuations," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 317-369, July-Dece.
    18. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Uz, Dilek & Sevindik, Irem, 2022. "How do macroeconomic dynamics affect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the power sector in developing economies: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    19. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.
    20. Salome Tvalodze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Tamar Mdivnishvili & Davit Tutberidze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2016. "The National Bank of Georgia's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," NBG Working Papers 01/2016, National Bank of Georgia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural estimation; DSGE; financial accelerator; devaluations; balance sheet effect; interest rate rule; exchange rate target; new open economy macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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