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Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Shocks, Backward-Looking Prices, and IMF Conditionality

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Author Info

  • Joel Bogdanski
  • Paulo Springer de Freitas
  • Ilan Goldfajn
  • Alexandre Antonio Tombini

Abstract

This paper examines the recent evolution of monetary policy since the adoption of formal inflation targeting in Brazil. We argue that the new policy framework has been subject to a severe test in its first years of existence, represented by external shocks - oil prices, and increased international financial volatility. Moreover, we examine some selected issues that deserve due consideration given their importance to the conduct of monetary policy. The first issue is the presence of a substantial portion of prices with backward-looking adjustment, a fact that affects monetary policy reaction since it reduces the efficiency of domestic interest rates in controlling inflation. The second addresses the question of how inflation targets should be monitored in a country that has an ongoing economic program with the International Monetary Fund. This last issue is particularly important when considering the effects of shortening monitoring horizons on the variability of inflation and output.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps24.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 24.

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Date of creation: Aug 2001
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Publication status: Published in Loayza, N. and Soto, R. (editors): Inflation Targeting: Design, Performance, Challenges, Santiago, Central Bank of Chile. pp. 539-582.
Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:24

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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References

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  1. Ilan Goldfajn & Sergio R.C. Werlang, 2000. "The pass-through from depreciation to inflation : a panel study," Textos para discussão 423, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Andrew Haldane, 1997. "Some Issues in Inflation Targeting," Bank of England working papers 74, Bank of England.
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Cited by:
  1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nogueira Jr., Reginaldo P. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "Fear of Floating in Brazil: Did Inflation Targeting matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 255-266, December.
  3. Fabio Kanczuk, 2003. "Supply Shocks and Inflation Targeting," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b01, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  4. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2005. "What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/109, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ferro, Gustavo, 2007. "Metas de inflación ¿qué hay de nuevo bajo el sol?
    [Inflation Targeting. What's new under the sun?]
    ," MPRA Paper 15069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2008.
  6. Gomez, Miguel I. & Gonzalez, Eliana & Melo, Luis F. & Torres, Jose L., 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21181, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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