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Testing for optimal monetary policy via moment inequalities

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  • Laura Coroneo
  • Valentina Corradi
  • Paulo Santos Monteiro

Abstract

The specification of an optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism requires selecting a policy regime, commonly commitment or discretion. In this paper we propose a new procedure for testing optimal monetary policy, relying on moment inequalities that nest commitment and discretion as two special cases. The approach is based on the derivation of bounds for inflation that are consistent with optimal policy under either policy regime. We derive testable implications that allow for specification tests and discrimination between the two alternative regimes. The proposed procedure is implemented to examine the conduct of monetary policy in the United States economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Coroneo & Valentina Corradi & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2013. "Testing for optimal monetary policy via moment inequalities," Discussion Papers 13/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:13/07
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2018. "Should the ECB Coordinate EMU Fiscal Policies?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 237-280, June.
    3. Carlos Madeira & João Madeira & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2023. "The origins of monetary policy disagreement: the role of supply and demand shocks," BIS Working Papers 1118, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Liu, Ding & Zhang, Yue & Sun, Weihong, 2020. "Commitment or discretion? An empirical investigation of monetary policy preferences in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 409-419.
    5. Tatiana Kirsanova & Stephanus le Roux, 2013. "Commitment vs. Discretion in the UK: An Empirical Investigation of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 99-152, December.
    6. Davide Debortoli & Aeimit Lakdawala, 2016. "How Credible Is the Federal Reserve? A Structural Estimation of Policy Re-optimizations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 42-76, July.
    7. Vieira, Paulo & Machado, Celsa & Ribeiro, Ana Paula, 2018. "Optimal discretionary monetary and fiscal policies in a country-size heterogeneous monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 154-174.
    8. Narek Ohanyan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy: rules versus discretion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 35-60, July.
    9. Andreas Tryphonides, 2017. "Set Identified Dynamic Economies and Robustness to Misspecification," Papers 1712.03675, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    10. Valentina Corradi & Sainan Jin & Norman R. Swanson, 2023. "Robust forecast superiority testing with an application to assessing pools of expert forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 596-622, June.
    11. Andreas Tryphonides, 2023. "Identifying Preferences when Households are Financially Constrained," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 521-546, December.
    12. Andreas Tryphonides, 2019. "Qualitative Surveys And Margins Of Adjustment In Heterogeneous Agent Economies," 2019 Meeting Papers 1415, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrap; GMM; Moment Inequalities; Optimal Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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