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A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence

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  • Harashima, Taiji

Abstract

Recently, it has been argued that trend inflation may be the solution to the puzzle of inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). However, incorporating trend inflation into the NKPC raises another serious problem—it lacks a microfoundation. The paper presents a microfoundation for trend inflation, which indicates that trend inflation is a natural consequence of simultaneous optimization by the government and households. A purely forward-looking model is constructed based on the microfoundation presented. The model enables a unified explanation for various types of inflation. It also indicates that, if inflation is assumed to follow an autoregressive process without considering trend inflation, many measures of inflation persistence will spuriously indicate that inflation is intrinsically substantially persistent and has a backward-looking property.

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  • Harashima, Taiji, 2008. "A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 10668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10668
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    Cited by:

    1. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2013. "The Phillips Curve And A Micro-Foundation Of Trend Inflation," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 151-182.
    2. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2016. "A Theory Of Deflation: Can Expectations Be Influenced By A Central Bank?," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 98-145.
    3. Harashima, Taiji, 2011. "A Mechanism of Inflation Differentials and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 28121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Harashima, Taiji, 2019. "A Theory of Inflation: The Law of Motion for Inflation under the MDC-based Procedure," MPRA Paper 113161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Harashima, Taiji, 2020. "A Theory of the Credit-to-GDP Gap: Using Credit Gaps to Predict Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 111732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Harashima, Taiji, 2009. "Depression as a Nash Equilibrium Consisting of Strategies of Choosing a Pareto Inefficient Transition Path," MPRA Paper 18953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Harashima, Taiji, 2015. "The Rate of Time Preference of Government," MPRA Paper 65387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Harashima, Taiji, 2015. "A Way Out of the Euro Crisis: Fiscal Transfers Are Indispensable for Sustainability in a Union with Heterogeneous Members," MPRA Paper 63025, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation persistence; The New Keynesian Phillips curve; Central bank independence; Trend inflation; The fiscal theory of the price level;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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