The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks in the G-7
AbstractThis Paper examines the changing relationships between the G7 countries through VAR models for the quarterly growth rates, estimated both over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Six trivariate models are estimated, all of which include the US and a European (E15) aggregate. In relative terms, the conditional volatility of E15 growth has declined more since 1980 than the well-documented decline for the US. The propagation of shocks has also changed, with the volatility and propagation effects separated by applying shocks of pre-1980 magnitude to VARs estimated over various periods. Rolling estimation reveals that E15 has a steadily increasing impact on the US economy over time, while the effects of the US on Europe have been largest during the 1970s and the late 1990s.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4652.
Date of creation: Oct 2004
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- Pedro Perez & Denise Osborn & Michael Artis, 2006. "The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks in the G-7," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 255-279, July.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
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