The Multistep Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition
AbstractThe Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper in-troduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained by the direct autoregressive approach, which optimizes the predictive ability of the AR model at forecast horizons greater than one. We compare our proposal with the standard Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, for which the forecast function is obtained by iterating the one-step-ahead predictions via the chain rule. We illustrate that the multistep Beveridge-Nelson trend is more efficient than the standard one in the presence of model misspecification and we subsequently assess the predictive validity of the extracted transitory component with respect to future growth.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels in its series EERI Research Paper Series with number EERI_RP_2009_24.
Date of creation: 09 2009
Date of revision:
Trend and Cycle; Forecasting; Filtering.;
Other versions of this item:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2009-09-26 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2009-09-26 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2009-09-26 (Forecasting)
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