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Minding the Gap: Central Bank Estimates of the Unemployment Natural Rate

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Author Info
Sharon Kozicki ()
P. Tinsley ()

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Abstract

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10614-006-9029-3
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 295-327
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:27:y:2006:i:2:p:295-327

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Related research
Keywords: FOMC Greenbook forecasts; the Great Iflation; time-varying natural rates;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tinsley, P. A., 1980. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-142, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2002. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1585-1611, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
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  10. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 115-120, May. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2003. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," Research Working Paper RWP 03-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  16. John A. Tatom, 1978. "Economic growth and unemployment: a reappraisal of the conventional view," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 16-23. [Downloadable!]
  17. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Arthur M. Okun & Nancy H. Teeters, 1970. "The Full Employment Surplus Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(1970-1), pages 77-116. [Downloadable!]
  20. Stuart E. Weiner, 1993. "New estimates of the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 53-69. [Downloadable!]
  21. Jean Boivin, 2005. "Has US Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," NBER Working Papers 11314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2002. "Alternative sources of the lag dynamics of inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  23. P.A. Tinsley, 1971. "On ramps, turnpikes, and distributed lag approximations of optimal intertemporal adjustment," Special Studies Papers 15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. repec:bep:macadv:v:3:y:2003:i:1:p:1118-1118 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-38. [Downloadable!]
  27. Robert E. Hall, 1974. "The Process of Inflation in the Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1974-2), pages 343-410. [Downloadable!]
  28. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2005. "Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did : an alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  29. George L. Perry, 1977. "Potential Output and Productivity," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1977-1), pages 11-60. [Downloadable!]
  30. Robert E. Hall, 1970. "Why Is the Unemployment Rate So High at Full Employment?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(1970-3), pages 369-410. [Downloadable!]
Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2007. "Perhaps the FOMC Did What It Said It Did: An Alternative Interpretation of the Great Inflation," Working Papers 07-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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