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Tests for non-linear dynamics in systems of non-stationary economic time series: the case of short-term US interest rates

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  • Barry E. Jones
  • Travis D. Nesmith

Abstract

Using Hall and Heyde's (1980) representation theorem, we show that the stationary co-integration relations of an integrated system are generally non-linear stochastic processes. We propose a sequential non-parametric procedure to test stationary co-integration relations for non-linear dynamics, and apply this procedure to short term U.S. interest rates as an illustration. We demonstrate that the weekly federal funds rate is co-integrated with Treasury bill and commercial paper rates and that the co-integration relations are non-linear.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199955/199955abs.html
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-55.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-55

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Keywords: Interest rates ; Time-series analysis;

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  1. Melvin J. Hinich & Philip Rothman, . "A Frequency Domain Test of Time Reversibility," Working Papers 9706, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  5. Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 256-271, August.
  6. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 2228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hinich, Melvin A. & Wild, Phillip, 2001. "Testing Time-Series Stationarity Against An Alternative Whose Mean Is Periodic," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 380-412, June.
  10. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  12. Said, Said E., 1991. "Unit-roots test for time-series data with a linear time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 285-303, February.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  14. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
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