Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective
AbstractTwo often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version, GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined estimate of GDP growth for the U.S., GDPC. We compare GDPC to GDPE and GDPI, with particular attention to behavior over the business cycle. We discuss several variations and extensions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 11-028.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 06 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
National Income and Product Accounts; Output; Expenditure; Economic Activity; Business Cycle; Recession;
Other versions of this item:
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2011. "Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective," NBER Working Papers 17421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongo Song, 2011. "Improving GDP measurement: a forecast combination perspective," Working Papers 11-41, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-09-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2011-09-16 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CBA-2011-09-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-09-16 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-09-16 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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"Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
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- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions," Working Papers 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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