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The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory decompositions in co-integrated systems

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  • Sven Schreiber

Abstract

The topic of this article is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock–Watson and Gonzalo–Granger permanent-transitory decompositions in the framework of the co-integrated vector autoregression. We suggest an approach to construct the confidence interval of the transitory component estimate in a given period (e.g., the latest observation) by conditioning on the observed data in that period. To calculate asymptotically valid confidence intervals, we use the delta method and two bootstrap variants. As an illustration, we analyze the uncertainty of (U.S.) output gap estimates in a system of output, consumption, and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Schreiber, 2019. "The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory decompositions in co-integrated systems," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 279-300, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:38:y:2019:i:3:p:279-300
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2016.1235257
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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