Forecasting Bilateral Refugee Flows with High-dimensional Data and Machine Learning Techniques
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Melitz, Jacques & Toubal, Farid, 2014.
"Native language, spoken language, translation and trade,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 351-363.
- Jacques Mélitz & Farid Toubal, 2012. "Native Language, Spoken Language, Translation and Trade," Working Papers 2012-10, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Jacques Melitz & Farid Toubal, 2014. "Native language, spoken language, translation and trade," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01306641, HAL.
- Jacques Melitz & Farid Toubal, 2012. "Native language, spoken language, translation and trade," Working Papers 2012-17, CEPII research center.
- Jacques Melitz & Farid Toubal, 2012. "Native language, spoken language, translation and trade," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1211, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
- Melitz, Jacques & Toubal, Farid, 2012. "Native language, spoken language, translation and trade," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-82, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Melitz, Jacques & Toubal, Farid, 2012. "Native language, spoken language, translation and trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 8994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jacques Melitz & Farid Toubal, 2014. "Native language, spoken language, translation and trade," Post-Print hal-01306641, HAL.
- Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017.
"Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography,"
Working Paper
96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
- Thu Hien Dao & Frédéric Docquier & Mathilde Maurel & Pierre Schaus, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2018003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Thu Hien Dao & Frédéric Docquier & Mathilde Maurel & Pierre Schaus, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01743799, HAL.
- Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Papers P223, FERDI.
- Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Papers P223, FERDI.
- Thu Hien Dao & Frédéric Docquier & Mathilde Maurel & Pierre Schaus, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Post-Print hal-01743799, HAL.
- Jon Kleinberg & Jens Ludwig & Sendhil Mullainathan & Ziad Obermeyer, 2015. "Prediction Policy Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 491-495, May.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019.
"Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them,"
Working Papers
1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Emilio Zagheni & Ingmar Weber & Krishna Gummadi, 2017. "Leveraging Facebook's Advertising Platform to Monitor Stocks of Migrants," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43(4), pages 721-734, December.
- Böhme, Marcus H. & Gröger, André & Stöhr, Tobias, 2020. "Searching for a better life: Predicting international migration with online search keywords," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
- Jakub Bijak & George Disney & Allan M. Findlay & Jonathan J. Forster & Peter W.F. Smith & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2019. "Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration: Lessons from the United Kingdom," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 470-487, August.
- Joop Age Harm Adema & Maitreyee Guha, 2022. "Following the Online Trail of Ukrainian Refugees through Google Trends," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(04), pages 62-66, July.
- Barbara Rossi, 2021. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1135-1190, December.
- Philippe Wanner, 2021. "How well can we estimate immigration trends using Google data?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1181-1202, August.
- Gordon Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2016.
"Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 57-82, Fall.
- Gordon Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2016. "Is The Mediterranean The New Rio Grande? US And EU Immigration Pressures In The Long Run," NBER Working Papers 22622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Hinz, Julian & Yildirim, Muhammed A., 2018.
"Measuring Venezuelan emigration with Twitter,"
Kiel Working Papers
2106, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Ricardo Hausmann & Julian Hinz & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2018. "Measuring Venezuelan Emigration with Twitter," CID Working Papers 342, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Alexander, Monica & Zagheni, Emilio & Polimis, Kivan, 2019. "The impact of Hurricane Maria on out-migration from Puerto Rico: Evidence from Facebook data," SocArXiv 39s6c, Center for Open Science.
- Burzynski, Michal & Deuster, Christoph & Docquier, Frédéric, 2020.
"Geography of skills and global inequality,"
Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
- Burzynski, Michal & Deuster, Christoph & Docquier, Frédéric, 2018. "Geography of Skills and Global Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 11804, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2018. "Mining big data using parsimonious factor, machine learning, variable selection and shrinkage methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 339-354.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Heidland, Tobias & Jannsen, Nils & Groll, Dominik & Kalweit, René & Boockmann, Bernhard, 2021. "Analyse und Prognose von Migrationsbewegungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 34, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Carolina Coimbra Vieira & Sophie Lohmann & Emilio Zagheni, 2023. "The value of cultural similarity for predicting migration: evidence from digital trace data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-009, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Daniela Perrotta & Sarah C. Johnson & Tom Theile & André Grow & Helga de Valk & Emilio Zagheni, 2022. "Openness to migrate internationally for a job: evidence from LinkedIn data in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Andreea Avramescu & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2021. "Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(40), pages 1219-1254.
- Tongzheng Pu & Chongxing Huang & Jingjing Yang & Ming Huang, 2023. "Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
- Bert Leysen & Pieter-Paul Verhaeghe, 2023. "Searching for migration: estimating Japanese migration to Europe with Google Trends data," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 4603-4631, October.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022.
"How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2019. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-22, CIRANO.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2020. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," Working Papers 20-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Aug 2020.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & St'ephane Surprenant, 2020. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," Papers 2008.12477, arXiv.org.
- James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," Working Papers 22-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 11 Apr 2023.
- Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2023. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 533-555, June.
- Richard Grieveson & Michael Landesmann & Isilda Mara, 2021. "Potential Mobility from Africa, Middle East and EU Neighbouring Countries to Europe," wiiw Working Papers 199, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023.
"Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.
- Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Times of Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- André Grow & Daniela Perrotta & Emanuele Del Fava & Jorge Cimentada & Francesco Rampazzo & B. Sofia Gil-Clavel & Emilio Zagheni & René D. Flores & Ilana Ventura & Ingmar G. Weber, 2021. "How reliable is Facebook’s advertising data for use in social science research? Insights from a cross-national online survey," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Andrea Bastianin & Elisabetta Mirto & Yan Qin & Luca Rossini, 2024.
"What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts,"
Papers
2402.04828, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
- Bastianin, Andrea & Mirto, Elisabetta & Qin, Yan & Rossini, Luca, 2024. "What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts," FEEM Working Papers 339740, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- Andrea Bastianin & Elisabetta Mirto & Yan Qin & Luca Rossini, 2024. "What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts," Working Papers 2024.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
- Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022.
"Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration,"
Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
- Burzyńskia, Michał & Deuster, Christoph & Docquier, Frédéric & de Melo, Jaime, 2019. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 12623, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Michal BURZYNSKI & Christoph DEUSTER & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Jaime DE MELO, 2019. "Climate change, Inequality and Human Migration," Working Paper e357047f-8d6d-4a17-9022-7, Agence française de développement.
- Michal Burzynski & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2019. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Working Papers hal-02394518, HAL.
- Michal Burzynski & Christoph Deuster & Frederic Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2019. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2019014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- de Melo, Jaime & Burzyński, Michał & Deuster, Christoph & Docquier, Frédéric, 2019. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 13997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
- Tony Chernis & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023.
"Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function,"
Staff Working Papers
23-61, Bank of Canada.
- Tony Chernis & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function," Working Papers 23-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Tony Chernis & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function," Papers 2311.12671, arXiv.org.
- Spyridon Spyratos & Michele Vespe & Fabrizio Natale & Ingmar Weber & Emilio Zagheni & Marzia Rango, 2019. "Quantifying international human mobility patterns using Facebook Network data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, October.
- Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 401-417, December.
- Docquier Frédéric, 2018. "Long-Term Trends in International Migration: Lessons from Macroeconomic Model," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 3-15, April.
More about this item
Keywords
forecasting; refugee flows; asylum seekers; European Union; machine; learning; Google trends;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-BIG-2023-04-03 (Big Data)
- NEP-CMP-2023-04-03 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2023-04-03 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MIG-2023-04-03 (Economics of Human Migration)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bruno Guallar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bargses.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.