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Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach

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  • Swamy, Vighneswara

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to an emerging economy — India using the mean-adjusted Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model. In its quantitative exploration, the study answers two key issues: (i) is there any evidence of decoupling from advanced economy business cycles? And (ii) what was the impact of the Eurozone recession on the growth performance of India? The findings suggest that Eurozone idiosyncratic shocks, on average, had large effects on economic activity in India. The variation explained by the innovations generated by the BVAR model range from 1.8 percent to 3.6 percent in the 1–12 quarter horizon. The main results are supported by the empirical estimations of the Wavelet analysis. The estimated output elasticities suggest that the Eurozone recession had a significant negative impact on India. The implication is that well-balanced diversity in the productive structure of emerging economies, particularly India, can diffuse the transmission of macroeconomic shocks from the advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Swamy, Vighneswara, 2020. "Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 126-150.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:68:y:2020:i:c:p:126-150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2020.09.008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurozone recession; The transmission of shocks; Bayesian vector autoregression; Growth spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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