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China And World Output Impact Of The Hubei Lockdown During The Coronavirus Outbreak

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  • Shaowen Luo
  • Kwok Ping Tsang

Abstract

Using a network approach, we estimate the output loss due to the lockdown of the Hubei province triggered by the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19). Based on our most conservative estimate, China suffers about 4% loss of output from labor loss, and global output drops by 1% per period due to the economic contraction in China. About 40% of the impact is indirect, coming from spillovers through the supply chain inside and outside China. (JEL E23, E24, F62)

Suggested Citation

  • Shaowen Luo & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2020. "China And World Output Impact Of The Hubei Lockdown During The Coronavirus Outbreak," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 583-592, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:38:y:2020:i:4:p:583-592
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.12482
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    Cited by:

    1. George, Ammu & Li, Changtai & Lim, Jing Zhi & Xie, Taojun, 2021. "From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. John Gibson & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "A synthetic control analysis of U.S. state level COVID-19 stay-at-home orders on new jobless claims," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Qianxue Zhang, 2022. "The Hubei lockdown and its global impacts via supply chains," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1087-1109, September.
    4. Yasheng Chen & Mohammad Islam Biswas, 2021. "Turning Crisis into Opportunities: How a Firm Can Enrich Its Business Operations Using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data during COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-17, November.
    5. Menna Bizuneh & Menelik Geremew, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Emerging Market Economies’ (EMEs) Sovereign Bond Risk Premium and Fiscal Solvency," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 519-545, October.
    6. Margarida Rodrigues & Mário Franco & Nuno Sousa & Rui Silva, 2021. "Reviewing COVID-19 Literature on Business Management: What It Portends for Future Research?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, May.
    7. Tibi Didier Zoungrana & Daouda Lawa tan Toé & Mamadou Toé, 2023. "Covid‐19 outbreak and stocks return on the West African Economic and Monetary Union's stock market: An empirical analysis of the relationship through the event study approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1404-1422, April.
    8. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    9. Goel, Rajeev K. & Saunoris, James W. & Goel, Srishti S., 2021. "Supply chain performance and economic growth: The impact of COVID-19 disruptions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 298-316.
    10. Zhang, Qianxue, 2021. "Supply shocks in China hit the world economy via global supply chains," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1323, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Jayles, Bertrand & Cheong, Siew Ann & Herrmann, Hans J., 2022. "Modeling the resilience of social networks to lockdowns regarding the dynamics of meetings," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 602(C).
    12. Zhilu Che & Mei Kong & Sen Wang & Jiakun Zhuang, 2023. "How Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Impact Internal Trade? Evidence from China’s Provincial-Level Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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