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Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?

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Author Info
David E. Bloom
Ajay S. Mahal

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Abstract

This study examines the claim that the AIDS epidemic will slow the pace of economic growth. We do this by examining the association, across fifty-one developing and industrial countries for which we were able to assemble data, between changes in the prevalence of AIDS and the rate of growth of GDP per capita. Our analysis uses well- established empirical growth models to control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with AIDS prevalence that might also influence growth. We also account for possible simultaneity in the relationship between AIDS and economic growth. Our main finding is that the AIDS epidemic has had an insignificant effect on the growth rate of per capita income, with no evidence of reverse causality. We also find evidence that the insignificant effect of AIDS on income per capita is qualitatively similar to an insignificant effect on wages of the Black Death in England and France during the Middle Ages and an insignificant effect on output per capita of influenza in India during 1918-19.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5148.

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Date of creation: Jun 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5148

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Avner Ahituv & V. Joseph Hotz & Tomas Philipson, . "Will the AIDS Epidemic be Self-Limiting? Evidence on the Responsiveness of the Demand for Condoms to the Prevalence of AIDS," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 93-3, Chicago - Population Research Center.
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  3. David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1986. "Population Growth, Labor Supply, and Employment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 1837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Desmond, Christopher & Greener, Robert, 2003. "The strategic use and potential demand for an HIV vaccine in Southern Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2977, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Muysken,Joan & Weel,Bas,ter, 1999. "Overeducation, Job Competition and Unemployment," Research Memoranda 030, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  3. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449. [Downloadable!]
  4. Arndt, Channing, 2002. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic prospects for Mozambique," TMD discussion papers 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael Grimm & Denis Cogneau, 2004. "AIDS and income distribution in Africa. A micro-simulation study for Cˆote d’Ivoire," Labor and Demography 0408006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Robalino, David A. & Jenkins, Carol & El Maroufi, Karim, 2002. "Risks and macroeconomic impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : why waiting to intervene can be costly," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2874, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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