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Domestic money and US output and inflation

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  • Aksoy, Yunus
  • Piskorski, Tomasz

Abstract

Recent empirical research found that the strong short-term relationship between monetary aggregates and US real output and inflation, as outlined in the classical study by M. Friedman and Schwartz, mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. In the light of the B. Friedman and Kuttner (1992) information value approach, we reevaluate the vanishing relationship between US monetary aggregates and these macroeconomic fundamentals by taking into account the international currency feature of the US dollar. In practice, by using official US data for foreign flows constructed by Porter and Judson (1996) we find that domestic money (currency component of M1 corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of US real output and inflation. Statistical evidence here provided thus suggests that the Friedman and Schwartz's stylized facts can be reestablished once the focus of analysis is back on the domestic monetary aggregates. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2001/08.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200108

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Related research

Keywords: Foreign holdings; US monetary aggregates; Information value; Friedman-Schwartz's evidence;

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References

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  1. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1996. "The Rise and Fall of Money Growth Targets as Guidelines for U.S. Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
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  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  9. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2000. "The role of interest rates in Federal Reserve policymaking," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 45(Oct), pages 43-66.
  10. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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  12. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
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  14. Jefferson, Philip N., 1998. "Seigniorage payments for use of the dollar: 1977-1995," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 225-230, February.
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  16. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Fischer, Björn & Köhler, Petra & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 0330, European Central Bank.

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