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Estimating the Structural Demand for Irish Housing

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Author Info
Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)
McQuinn, Kieran (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)
O' Reilly, Gerard (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

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Abstract

After 10 years of unprecedented increases in both prices and activity levels, the Irish housing market appears to be entering a period of some uncertainty. In the early part of 2007, Irish house prices, for the first time in recent history, experienced negative growth rates - leading indicators within the housing sector would suggest that house building is already beginning to contract, with future levels expected to be somewhat below the record level of construction in 2006. The sustained increase in housing construction prompted by the rapid increase in prices has resulted in the Irish construction sector assuming a position of considerable importance within the overall economy. Arguably, any significant slowdown in housing activity could have far-reaching domestic consequences. In this paper, we use a recently developed model of the housing sector to gauge what the structural level of demand is for Irish housing.

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Paper provided by Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI) in its series Research Technical Papers with number 1/RT/08.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/08

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. David Duffy & John Fitz Gerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 251-272. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Denis Conniffe & David Duffy, 1999. "Irish House Price Indices ? Methodological Issues," Papers WP110, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Stover, Mark Edward, 1986. "The price elasticity of the supply of single-family detached urban housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 331-340, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Roche, Maurice, 2003. "Will there be a Crash in Irish House Prices?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2003(4-Winter), pages 1-16. [Downloadable!]
  7. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "The rise in Dublin city house prices: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n920799, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  8. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Malpezzi, Stephen & Maclennan, Duncan, 2001. "The Long-Run Price Elasticity of Supply of New Residential Construction in the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 278-306, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mc Quinn, Kieran, 2004. "A Model of the Irish Housing Sector," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/04, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  12. Kenny, Geoff, 2003. "Asymmetric adjustment costs and the dynamics of housing supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1097-1111, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 1996. "Unifying empirical and theoretical models of housing supply," Working Papers 96-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  14. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish house prices: will the roof fall in?," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n890699, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  15. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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