Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland
AbstractWhile increased attention has, of late, focussed on models of house prices, few,if any, studies have examined house prices from a purely forecasting perspective. However, the need for accurate and timely forecasts of house prices has grown as the rate of house price inflation is more and more important to policy discussions such as those governing decisions on inflation. This is further underscored with the development of financial markets products based on houseprice index. In this paper, we propose that a simple univariate moving average (MA) model can provide optimal forecasts of Irish house price inflation when compared with a suite of standard forecasting and structural house price models. This result echoes similar recent findings for forecasts of US inflation rate.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 3/RT/08.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2009-01-31 (Forecasting)
- NEP-GEO-2009-01-31 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-31 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2009-01-31 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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