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Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market

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  • David Duffy

    (The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

  • John Fitz Gerald

    (The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

  • Ide Kearney

    (The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

We explore the consequences of rising house prices for the openness of the Irish labour market. Since many immigrants are in the household formation age group, and tend to be highly skilled, we argue that the boom in house prices, by reducing the attractiveness of Ireland for potential immigrants, could reduce labour supply. Using a structural model of the labour market we endogenise the determination of house prices. Our results suggest that rising house prices, by discouraging potential migrants, could significantly reduce the growth potential of the economy, shifting the balance of labour market growth from employment to wages, with a consequent deterioration in competitiveness.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economic and Social Studies in its journal Economic and Social Review.

Volume (Year): 36 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 251-272

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Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:36:y:2005:i:3:p:251-272

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  1. Barrett, Alan & FitzGerald, John & Nolan, Brian, 2000. "Earnings Inequality, Returns to Education and Immigration into Ireland," IZA Discussion Papers 167, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Honohan, Patrick, 1992. "The Link between Irish and UK Unemployment," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 1992(1-Spring).
  3. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John, 1998. "The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(4), pages 420-46, September.
  4. Alan Barrett & Adele Bergin & David Duffy, 2006. "The Labour Market Characteristics and Labour Market Impacts of Immigrants in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 1-26.
  5. Futagami, Koichi & Morita, Yuichi & Shibata, Akihisa, 1993. " Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Capital," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 607-25, December.
  6. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
  7. Bover, Olympia & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1989. "Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 97-136, March.
  8. Gabriel, Stuart A. & Shack-Marquez, Janice & Wascher, William L., 1992. "Regional house-price dispersion and interregional migration," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 235-256, September.
  9. John FitzGerald, 1998. "Wage Formation and the Labour Market," Papers WP095, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  10. Kristof Dascher, 2001. "Land Prices, Urban Sprawl and Affordable Housing - Dublin and the Open City," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 69-79.
  11. Joshua Gallin, 2004. "The long-run relationship between house prices and rents," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Adele Bergin & Ide Kearney, 2004. "Human Capital, The Labour Market and Productivity Growth in Ireland," Papers WP158, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  13. Nickell, Stephen & Bell, Brian, 1995. "The Collapse in Demand for the Unskilled and Unemployment across the OECD," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 40-62, Spring.
  14. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joe & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "Medium-Term Review 2003-2010, No. 9," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR09, March.
  15. Barry, Frank & Bradley, John, 1997. "FDI and Trade: The Irish Host-Country Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1798-1811, November.
  16. FitzGerald, John, 2005. "The Irish Housing Stock: Growth in Number of Vacant Dwellings," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2005(1-Spring), pages 1-22.
  17. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
  18. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Modelling the demand and supply sides of the housing market: evidence from Ireland1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, August.
  19. John Curtis & John FitzGerald, 1994. "Convergence in an Open Labour Market," Papers WP045, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  20. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
  21. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
  22. repec:esr:forcas:mtr09 is not listed on IDEAS
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