Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Scenarios for Irish House Prices

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kennedy, Gerard

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

In this note, a recently published model of the Irish residential mortgage market is used to generate likely scenarios for Irish house prices out to 2013. The model allows for the interaction between house prices and mortgage credit as well as key macroeconomic variables and housing supply. Future prices based on such models typically tend to assume that, where significant overvaluation has occured, prices correct back to some long-run equilibrium path. However, analysis of housing booms in a cross-country context reveals that prices often tend to overcorrect following a sustained house price boom. We discuss the results from our model in this context.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.centralbank.ie/publications/Documents/Scenarios%20for%20Irish%20House%20Prices.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Economic Letters with number 02/EL/11.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:02/el/11

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box No. 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Email:
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ie
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Roche, Maurice, 2003. "Will there be a Crash in Irish House Prices?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2003(4-Winter), pages 1-16.
  2. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
  3. David Duffy & John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) WP166, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  4. repec:cbi:wpaper:15/rt/06 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. repec:cbi:wpaper:5/rt/07 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:cbi:wpaper:5/rt/04 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "The rise in Dublin city house prices: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth n920799, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  8. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2009. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2009," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20094, March.
  9. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
  10. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. McGuinness, Anne, 2011. "The Distribution of Property Level Mortgage Arrears," Economic Letters 06/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  2. McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble Toil and Trouble? An Assessment of the Current State of the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "Why are Irish house prices still falling?," Economic Letters 05/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:02/el/11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Smith).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.