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Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?

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  • Goodman, Allen C.
  • Thibodeau, Thomas G.

Abstract

In the first half of this decade, US house prices experienced significant real rates of appreciation. The dramatic increase in house prices led some economists to conclude that there was a speculative bubble in the US housing market. This paper explores how much of the recent appreciation in US house prices was attributable to the fundamental economic determinants of house prices. On the demand side, we note that the rate of homeownership in the US increased from 66.8% in 1999 to 69% in the fourth quarter of 2005. http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/histt14.html, accessed 10/17/2007. Each percentage point increase in the homeownership rate increases the demand for owner-occupied housing by about one million units. On the supply side, land prices and housing construction costs increased substantially in real terms over this period. The national average increase in house prices conceals significant spatial variation in appreciation rates. According to OFHEO, house prices in some California cities increased by more than fifteen percent per year during this period while house prices in Texas cities increased four percent per year. The increase in aggregate housing demand had different effects on metropolitan area house prices because housing market supply elasticities vary spatially. We estimate housing supply elasticities for 133 metropolitan areas and conclude that although areas on the East Coast and in California had large observed price increases, they owe much of their house price increases to inelastic supplies of owner-occupied housing.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Housing Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 117-137

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:17:y:2008:i:2:p:117-137

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gouriéroux, Christian & Laferrère, Anne, 2009. "Managing hedonic housing price indexes: The French experience," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 206-213, September.
  2. Schreyer, Paul, 2009. "User costs and bubbles in land markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 267-272, September.
  3. Ball, Michael & Meen, Geoffrey & Nygaard, Christian, 2010. "Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 255-268, December.
  4. Oliver Lerbs, 2012. "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p258, European Regional Science Association.
  5. Marsha J. Courchane & Cynthia Holmes, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble ¡V Is there House Price Trouble -- in Canada?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 109-135.
  6. Clark, Steven P. & Coggin, T. Daniel, 2011. "Was there a U.S. house price bubble? An econometric analysis using national and regional panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 189-200, May.
  7. Elias Oikarinen & Risto Peltola & Eero Valtonen, 2014. "Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants: The case of a small sparsely populated country," Discussion Papers 91, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  8. Ge, Jiaqi, 2013. "Endogenous Rise and Collapse of Housing Prices," Staff General Research Papers 36279, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  9. Craig Depken & Harris Hollans & Steve Swidler, 2009. "An Empirical Analysis of Residential Property Flipping," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 248-263, October.
  10. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
  11. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
  12. Nichols, Joseph B. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Mulhall, Michael R., 2013. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 57-76.
  13. Follain, James R. & Giertz, Seth H., 2011. "Using Monte Carlo simulations to establish a new house price stress test," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 101-119, June.
  14. Cynthia A. Bansa & Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Distributional costs of the housing-price bust," Working Papers 2011-04, American University, Department of Economics.
  15. Kashian, Russell & Carroll, Joseph D., Jr., 2011. "The Effect of Sheriff’s Sales on Condominium Sub-Market Property Values," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 41(1).
  16. Garner, Thesia I. & Verbrugge, Randal, 2009. "Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 172-192, September.
  17. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
  18. Oliver Lerbs, . "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," Working Papers 201283, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
  19. Lerbs, Oliver W., 2012. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," CAWM Discussion Papers 57, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM), University of Münster.
  20. Jiaqi Ge, 2013. "Endogenous Formation and Collapse Of Housing Bubbles," Staff General Research Papers 36277, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  21. Escobari, Diego & Damianov, Damian & Bello, Andres, 2012. "A time series test to identify housing bubbles," MPRA Paper 44360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Christian Pierdzioch, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors and the German Real Estate Market: A Stock-Market-Based Forecasting Experiment," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 2, pages 87-96, May.

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