Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?
AbstractIn the first half of this decade, US house prices experienced significant real rates of appreciation. The dramatic increase in house prices led some economists to conclude that there was a speculative bubble in the US housing market. This paper explores how much of the recent appreciation in US house prices was attributable to the fundamental economic determinants of house prices. On the demand side, we note that the rate of homeownership in the US increased from 66.8% in 1999 to 69% in the fourth quarter of 2005. http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/historic/histt14.html, accessed 10/17/2007. Each percentage point increase in the homeownership rate increases the demand for owner-occupied housing by about one million units. On the supply side, land prices and housing construction costs increased substantially in real terms over this period. The national average increase in house prices conceals significant spatial variation in appreciation rates. According to OFHEO, house prices in some California cities increased by more than fifteen percent per year during this period while house prices in Texas cities increased four percent per year. The increase in aggregate housing demand had different effects on metropolitan area house prices because housing market supply elasticities vary spatially. We estimate housing supply elasticities for 133 metropolitan areas and conclude that although areas on the East Coast and in California had large observed price increases, they owe much of their house price increases to inelastic supplies of owner-occupied housing.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Housing Economics.
Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1990.
"The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market,"
NBER Working Papers
2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
- Green, Richard & Hendershott, Patric H., 1996.
"Age, housing demand, and real house prices,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 465-480, August.
- Quigley, John M. & Raphael, Steven, 2006.
"Regulation and the High Cost of Housing in California,"
Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series
qt3hh7s35m, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- John M. Quigley & Steven Raphael, 2005. "Regulation and the High Cost of Housing in California," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 323-328, May.
- Allen C. Goodman, 2005. "The Other Side of Eight Mile: Suburban Population and Housing Supply," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 539-569, 09.
- Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
- Ozanne, Larry & Thibodeau, Thomas, 1983. "Explaining metropolitan housing price differences," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 51-66, January.
- John Krainer & Chishen Wei, 2004. "House prices and fundamental value," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct1.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
- DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
- Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 1999.
"Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources,"
Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers
99-16, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
- Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 2005. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 334-339, May.
- Poterba, James M, 1984.
"Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November.
- James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
- James R. Follain, Jr., 1979. "The Price Elasticity of the Long-Run Supply of New Housing Construction," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 190-199.
- Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
- Goodman, Allen C., 2005. "Central cities and housing supply: Growth and decline in US cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 315-335, December.
- Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989.
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goodman, Allen C., 1988. "An econometric model of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 327-353, May.
- Malpezzi, Stephen & Maclennan, Duncan, 2001. "The Long-Run Price Elasticity of Supply of New Residential Construction in the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 278-306, September.
- Ge, Jiaqi, 2013. "Endogenous Rise and Collapse of Housing Prices," Staff General Research Papers 36279, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Cynthia A. Bansa & Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Distributional costs of the housing-price bust," Working Papers 2011-04, American University, Department of Economics.
- Oliver Lerbs, 2012. "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p258, European Regional Science Association.
- Nichols, Joseph B. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Mulhall, Michael R., 2013.
"Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 57-76.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Joseph B. Nichols & Michael R. Mulhall, 2012. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," Working Papers 35088, American Enterprise Institute.
- Garner, Thesia I. & Verbrugge, Randal, 2009.
"Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 172-192, September.
- Randal Verbrugge & Thesia I. Garner, 2009. "Reconciling User Costs and Rental Equivalence: Evidence from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey," Working Papers 427, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Jiaqi Ge, 2013. "Endogenous Formation and Collapse Of Housing Bubbles," Staff General Research Papers 36277, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Gouriéroux, Christian & Laferrère, Anne, 2009. "Managing hedonic housing price indexes: The French experience," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 206-213, September.
- Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
- Ball, Michael & Meen, Geoffrey & Nygaard, Christian, 2010. "Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 255-268, December.
- Escobari, Diego & Damianov, Damian & Bello, Andres, 2012. "A time series test to identify housing bubbles," MPRA Paper 44360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kashian, Russell & Carroll, Joseph D., Jr., 2011. "The Effect of Sheriffâ€™s Sales on Condominium Sub-Market Property Values," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 41(1).
- MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
- Clark, Steven P. & Coggin, T. Daniel, 2011. "Was there a U.S. house price bubble? An econometric analysis using national and regional panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 189-200, May.
- Schreyer, Paul, 2009. "User costs and bubbles in land markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 267-272, September.
- Craig Depken & Harris Hollans & Steve Swidler, 2009. "An Empirical Analysis of Residential Property Flipping," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 248-263, October.
- Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
- Oliver Lerbs, . "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," Working Papers 201283, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
- Lerbs, Oliver W., 2012. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," CAWM Discussion Papers 57, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM), University of Münster.
- repec:ire:issued:v:17:n:01:2014:p:109-135 is not listed on IDEAS
- Follain, James R. & Giertz, Seth H., 2011. "Using Monte Carlo simulations to establish a new house price stress test," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 101-119, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.