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Cross–Sectoral Variation in Firm–Level Idiosyncratic Risk

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  • CASTRO, Rui
  • CLEMENTI, Gian Luca
  • LEE, Yoonsoo

Abstract

We estimate firm-level idiosyncratic risk in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Our proxy for risk is the volatility of the portion of growth in sales or TFP which is not explained by either industry- or economy-wide factors, or firm characteristics systematically associated with growth itself. We find that idiosyncratic risk accounts for about 90% of the overall uncertainty faced by firms. The extent of cross-sectoral variation in idiosyncratic risk is remarkable. Firms in the most volatile sector are subject to at least three times as much uncertainty as firms in the least volatile. Our evidence indicates that idiosyncratic risk is higher in industries where the extent of creative destruction is likely to be greater.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 2010-07.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2010-07

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Keywords: Schumpeterian Competition; Creative Destruction; Product Turnover; R&D Intensity; Investment–Specific Technological Change.;

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References

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  1. Claudio Michelacci & Fabiano Schivardi, 2010. "Does Idiosyncratic Business Risk Matter?," Working Papers CELEG 1002, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  2. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Working Papers 12354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mark Bils & Yongsung Chang, 1999. "Understanding How Price Responds to Costs and Production," NBER Working Papers 7311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  5. Malkiel, Burton & Campbell, John & Lettau, Martin & Xu, Yexiao, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Scholarly Articles 3128707, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi & Glenn MacDonald, 2004. "Legal Institutions, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and Economic Development," 2004 Meeting Papers 162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1989. "Quality Ladders And Product Cycles," Papers 152, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  8. Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Kenneth R. Troske, 1996. "Technology and Jobs: Secular Changes and Cyclical Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 5656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. repec:ste:nystbu:05-20 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, December.
  11. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
  12. Lucia Foster & John C. Haltiwanger & C. J. Krizan, 2001. "Aggregate Productivity Growth. Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 303-372 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Matthias Kehrig, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Productivity Dispersion," 2011 Meeting Papers 484, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Isabelle Mejean & Andrei Levchenko & Julian di Giovanni, 2013. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," 2013 Meeting Papers 352, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Markus Poschke & Alain Gabler, 2011. "Growth through Experimentation," 2011 Meeting Papers 643, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2011. "Cyclical changes in firm volatility," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Hernan Moscoso Boedo & Pablo D'Erasmo, 2011. "Entrepreneurship and Endogenous Volatility," 2011 Meeting Papers 901, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Kevin Donovan, 2011. "Risk, Farm Ownership, and International Productivity Differences," 2011 Meeting Papers 1088, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Hernan Moscoso Boedo & Pablo D'Erasmo, 2013. "Intangibles and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle," 2013 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Decker, Ryan & D'Erasmo, Pablo & Moscoso Boedo, Herman J., 2014. "Market exposure and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle," Working Papers 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Alain Gabler & Markus Poschke, 2013. "Experimentation by Firms, Distortions, and Aggregate Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 26-38, January.

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