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Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle

Author

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  • Ryan A. Decker
  • Pablo N. D'Erasmo
  • Hernan Moscoso Boedo

Abstract

We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level risk over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand shocks at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity shocks and captures the observed countercyclity of firm-level risk. Using a panel of US firms we show that, consistent with our theoretical model, measures of market reach are procyclical, and the countercyclicality of firm-level risk is driven by those firms that adjust their market exposure, which are larger than those that do not. (JEL D21, D22, E23, E32, L25)

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan A. Decker & Pablo N. D'Erasmo & Hernan Moscoso Boedo, 2016. "Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 148-198, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:148-98
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20130011
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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