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Cross–Sectoral Variation in Firm–Level Idiosyncratic Risk

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Author Info

  • Rui Castro

    ()
    (Department of Economics and CIREQ, Université de Montréal)

  • Gian Luca Clementi

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University and RCEA)

  • Yoonsoo Lee

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Sogang University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

Abstract

We estimate firm–level idiosyncratic risk in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Our proxy for risk is the volatility of the portion of growth in sales or TFP which is not explained by either industry– or economy–wide factors, or firm characteristics systematically associated with growth itself. We find that idiosyncratic risk accounts for about 90% of the overall uncertainty faced by firms. The extent of cross–sectoral variation in idiosyncratic risk is remarkable. Firms in the most volatile sector are subject to at least three times as much uncertainty as firms in the least volatile. Our evidence indicates that idiosyncratic risk is higher in industries where the extent of creative destruction is likely to be greater.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 28_10.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:28_10

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Keywords: Schumpeterian Competition; Creative Destruction; Product Turnover; R&D Intensity; Investment–Specific Technological Change;

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References

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2000. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 7590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. CASTRO, Rui & CLEMENTI, Gian Luca & MACDONALD, Glenn, 2009. "Legal Institutions, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and Economic Development," Cahiers de recherche 09-2009, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1989. "Quality Ladders And Product Cycles," Papers 39-89, Tel Aviv.
  4. Dunne, Timothy & Haltiwanger, John & Troske, Kenneth R., 1997. "Technology and jobs: secular changes and cyclical dynamics," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 107-178, June.
  5. Michelacci, Claudio & Schivardi, Fabiano, 2008. "Does Idiosyncratic Business Risk Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Stephen Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded Versus Privately Held Firms," Working Papers 06-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  8. Bils, Mark & Chang, Yongsung, 2000. "Understanding how price responds to costs and production," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 33-77, June.
  9. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, December.
  10. repec:ste:nystbu:05-20 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
  12. Lucia Foster & John C. Haltiwanger & C. J. Krizan, 2001. "Aggregate Productivity Growth. Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 303-372 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2014. "Cyclical changes in firm volatility," DNB Working Papers 408, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Matthias Kehrig, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Productivity Dispersion," 2011 Meeting Papers 484, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Isabelle Mejean & Andrei Levchenko & Julian di Giovanni, 2013. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," 2013 Meeting Papers 352, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Hernan Moscoso Boedo & Pablo D'Erasmo, 2013. "Intangibles and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle," 2013 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Markus Poschke & Alain Gabler, 2011. "Growth through Experimentation," 2011 Meeting Papers 643, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Decker, Ryan & D'Erasmo, Pablo & Moscoso Boedo, Herman J., 2014. "Market exposure and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle," Working Papers 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Alain Gabler & Markus Poschke, 2013. "Experimentation by Firms, Distortions, and Aggregate Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 26-38, January.
  8. Kevin Donovan, 2011. "Risk, Farm Ownership, and International Productivity Differences," 2011 Meeting Papers 1088, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Hernan Moscoso Boedo & Pablo D'Erasmo, 2011. "Entrepreneurship and Endogenous Volatility," 2011 Meeting Papers 901, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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